Six months in:

On Tuesday 27 September 2022 the Netherlands Atlantic Youth (‘Jonge Atlantici’) invites you to the first event of the season titled:

Six months in: Assessing the wider implications of the Ukraine invasion

On 24 February 2022 Russia launched a massive invasion of Ukraine. What followed is a war of attrition where resolution seems far removed. Faced with a high level of short-term and long-term uncertainty, it is important to assess the wider impact of the war seven months after its start.

The evening will start with a keynote speech by Gen. Paul Ducheine exploring the cyber dimension of the Ukraine war. After, we will separate in four roundtables including our other speakers Irina Patrahau, Steven Derix and Niels Drost. At these tables, we will delve into the wider implications of the Ukraine invasion: cyber threat, energy security, historical narratives and (dis)information, and the impact on Russian politics and society.

The invasion saw the return of war to the European continent. Contrary to speculation about cyber warfare, a war of attrition has emerged in Ukraine where the focus remains on the conventional forces with an increased cyber threat, especially in the first weeks. What has the Ukraine war shown about the role of the digital dimension in warfare? Moreover, what can Ukraine’s defences against Russia’s offensive cyber operations teach others about the preparation needed to seize the advantage in cyberspace?

The impact of the war has been felt beyond the battlefield. Already, the invasion has demonstrated a significant impact on the markets for energy and natural resources. The prices of commodities have skyrocketed over recent months, threatening availability to energy resources. How will the conflict continue to affect European energy security? Moreover, with winter approaching and with it the demand for natural resources expected to rise, what might be expected for the coming months?

The war has also shown the continued significance of historical narratives in geopolitics. In his speeches, Putin has made it clear that he believes Ukraine has no historical claim to independent statehood. How has Putin used such historic narratives, and to what success? Meanwhile, Ukraine has bolstered its own national identity as a country whose rightful place is within the European community. Who and what is behind the successful Ukrainian campaign?

At the same time, Russia has been increasingly isolated on the international stage, with EU and US’ economic and financial sanctions inflicting serious damage on the Russian economy. The Kremlin has tightened its grip on the public sphere, cracking down on the few independent media left in Russia and restricting access to foreign information sources. Under fear of reprisal, public dissent has largely gone underground. How has everyday life changed for the average Russian citizen? Furthermore, what have been the expected repercussions for the Russian political reality, now and in the near future?

These and other questions will be discussed during this first event of the season! Following the engaging keynote provided by Gen. Ducheine, we will split up in roundtables of 8-12 participants. It will be possible to join two conversations. We of course encourage you to prepare your questions. Afterwards there is the chance to enjoy a drink.

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Speakers

Gen. Paul Ducheine is Professor of Cyberwarfare at the Netherlands Defence Academy, and Professor Military Law of Cyber Operations & Cyber Security at the University of Amsterdam. Ducheine specializes in non-kinetic warfare.

Irina Patrahau (MSc) is a Strategic Analist at the The Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS). Irina’s expertise revolves around the energy markets and the energy security of supply, including Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas.

Steven Derix is a journalist for NRC Handelsblad. He has recently published the life story of Zelensky in ‘Zelensky: De oorlogspresident’. Previously, Derix worked as a correspondent in Moscow.

Niels Drost (MA) is a Junior Researcher at the Clingendael Russia & Eastern Europe Centre (REKA). His research revolves primarily around contemporary politics and security issues in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Details & registration