INTERVIEW
5 Questions to Ivo Daalder about 75 years of NATO
NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary in Washington D.C. in July 2024, which was a celebration with mixed feelings. To reflect on the past 75 years of NATO and the future of the transatlantic alliance, the Netherlands Atlantic Association and the John Adams Institute hosted Ivo Daalder, CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former US representative to NATO under President Barack Obama, in the Dominicuskerk in Amsterdam on September 16, 2024. During the event, moderated by Eelco Bosch van Rosenthal, Daalder discussed three of the main challenges to NATO: the war in Ukraine, the need for a Europeanization of NATO, and the US presidential elections.
NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary in July this year. Was there anything to celebrate?
“Well, yes there was something to celebrate, but it came at an awkward time. A lot was going on at the time, such as the questions about President Joe Biden’s capabilities following the presidential debate, the shock elections in France, and the rise of the far-right in the European elections. But it is worth celebrating that NATO’s fundament is still the same now as it was 75 years ago, which is to keep its members safe and secure from armed attacks. For almost the entirety of the 75 years, NATO had accomplished its goal of bringing peace and stability on the European continent. And when challenged with the full-scale Russian invasion in Ukraine in 2022, NATO responded. It took actions in increasing defense spending and providing Ukraine with military aid. At the same time, we live in anxious times and in a world where war in Europe is possible again. In fact, war in Europe has been going on for 2,5 years now. We all grew up in a world where peace was a given and democracy was normal. We now live in a world in which there is a major war on the European continent and democracy is under threat. Not only because of the war in Ukraine, but also because of the rise of the far-right in both the US and Europe.”
How confident are you of Ukraine’s chances of winning the war?
“I’m optimistic that if we remain united and if we continue to support Ukraine, then Ukraine can win. And winning means the ability to decide its own future as an independent country. Maybe not fully in control over all its territory immediately, but as an independent country that decides what it wants. And what Ukraine wants, is to be a member of the EU and of NATO. So when Ukraine is a member of NATO and the EU, Russia will have lost, no matter where the territory stands at that moment. However, it is not going to be easy. A win for Ukraine doesn’t depend on Western weapons, it depends on Western will to do something far bigger, which is to bring NATO into Ukraine and, more importantly, bring Ukraine into NATO. Ukraine wants to be part of the EU and NATO, so we need to ask ourselves the question: are we prepared to have Ukraine in NATO? The actions of the Biden administration show that the US is not really prepared to defend Ukraine, because that would mean the outbreak of a Third World War. I understand that decision and I am glad we have a president who carefully thinks about this, but I happen to disagree.”
Since 2014, more European countries have increased their defense spending and have met the NATO guideline of spending 2% of the GDP on defense. Will this be enough for Europe to ensure its defense?
“Europe is a critical player. Instead of looking West or East, which is what Europe tends to do, it is time for Europe to look at itself. 75 years after the US pledged to defend Europe, Europe needs to pledge to defend itself. Europe should do more and take on more responsibility to become a pillar that can stand for itself within the alliance. The increase in defense spending by more European countries has been a big step and very necessary, because Uncle Sam is not going to do it anymore. But this is not enough for Europe to defend itself. It is not just about how much money you spend on defense, but it is about what you do with that money. What we need is a Europeanization of NATO. Europe needs to fill in the gaps that exist in the current NATO defense. We should work towards more NATO defense that is less dependent on the US, because the US is not always going to be here to defend Europe.”
How will the outcome of the US presidential elections affect NATO?
“These are the most important elections since 1860, which was the year when Abraham Lincoln was elected, followed by the Civil War a year later. We are now facing an election that is that consequential. I don’t know how it ends, but I do know that if Donald Trump becomes president, the ability of Europe to rely on the United States to defend itself against a Russian threat will be severely diminished. Alliances are not based on treaties, they’re based on trust. And who can trust Donald Trump to defend a foreign country? But even if Kamala Harris wins, the basic balance between responsibilities and power within the NATO alliance needs to shift. The Europeanization of NATO has to happen no matter what. The only question is: will the US be an obstacle to that, or will it be cooperating? Ultimately, the responsibility has to come from Europe, it cannot come from the US. Let’s hope that the US and Europe remain united in dealing with the challenges that we face, but if not, the European answer must be: NATO will survive, with or without the US, because we are serious about our defense.”
Regardless of who wins the elections in November, how does a more structural focus shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific play a role in the decreased support for NATO and European security challenges in the United States?
“I think it’s a mistake to think that there is an ‘either, or’ way of thinking about the Indo-Pacific and Europe. It’s an ‘and.’ We are in a geo-strategic competition between The West on the one hand and China and Russia on the other. The one advantage that the West has is that we have Western countries in North America, in Europe, and in Asia that can, and should cooperate in dealing with that challenge. Yes, China is the shaping challenge that’s defining the nature of our military according to Washington DC. But what China is really shaping is the forming of alliances, not only in the Indo-Pacific, but also in Europe. The challenge for Europe is not only to think about Russia, but about how it can be a part of a wider alliance structure that includes the Indo-Pacific, as well as North America. The US should not play one theater off against the other, or think about Europe and the Indo-Pacific in isolation, but it should rather look at what’s happening in the world at large. That’s the challenge for the United States and for Europe and Asia as well.”
