Column door Marten van Heuven

WASHINGTON BEFORE THE OBAMA INAUGURATION

Returning from rural Vermont to Washington DC in the first days of 2009 has been like experiencing an electric shock. The trigger is the prospective swearing in of President Obama on January 20.

The capital is consumed by the events of the next few weeks. Inauguration planners anticipate a crowd of four million, an unprecedented number – even if possibly exaggerated – for a city of under six hundred thousand. The presence of the Obama family at the Hay Adams, within view of the White House, is drawing intense public interest. January 5 is the first school day for the Obama children, and once again Sidwell Friends School will get a chance to show (it did earlier with Chelsea Clinton) that it can handle pupils much in the public eye. Local civic and political leaders hope for and expect direct involvement of the Obama family with the District. The Washington Post reports that Georgetown hostesses are scheming how to get the new President and his wife for dinner. Security planning is evident, and well advanced. The Hay Adams is barricaded until the Obamas move into Blair House (the official visitor's guest house), on January 15, across the street from the White House. With his arrival here, President-elect Obama is now operating from a Washington, not a Chicago, office.

The inauguration marks two significant milestones. One is the taking of office of a Democratic president after eight years of Republican administration. The other is the fact that the new President is black and comes from a segment that represents thirteen per cent of the American population. This evolution is historic, and the effects are, in many ways, not yet fully measurable. What is measurable, however, is the huge wave of popular enthusiasm that has greeted Obama's election and now anticipates his taking office.

The principal issue facing Obama is the economy. A stimulus package – labeled by Obama as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan – of perhaps 800 billion dollars is under intensive discussion with and among Congressional leaders. This package is likely to be ready in mid-February. Many Republicans are skeptical about its cost, scope and timetable. Conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats are numbed by sticker shock, and would like to include statutory pay-as-you-go language. However, past experience with that particular device is not encouraging, leaving open the question just how this would work. But there is little question that there will be massive administration effort to get the economy going again.

Planning by Congressional leaders for major overhaul of the country's health care system is reported to be progressing faster than expected, and marked by pragmatism and bi-partisanship. Energy and environmental issues remain contentious, and will take more time to sort out. Global warming legislation may be in trouble.

Politics have not gone away. The Republican National Committee seizes every opportunity to attack Obama. Despite their reduced numbers in the House and Senate, Republicans are tempted to test the new President. But they know they must pick carefully on which issues to challenge the new President.

A key factor is the style of President-elect Obama. Though intellectually intense, his political style is as low-key as his personal demeanor. He is seeking out many constituencies. His start in relations with the Congress shows a desire to reach across the aisle and work toward practical solutions, eschewing ideology. He is giving time and attention to Republican congressional leaders, but also the leaders of his own party, whose cooperation he needs to pass his program. He is seizing on the awareness of Americans that the country is in serious crisis to open the door to a different way of doing politics.

While these domestic issues command prime attention, the international agenda has been crowding in. The Afghan war is not going well. The situation in Iraq remains precarious. There are additional urgent issues, including large-scale instability in parts of Africa and a worsening of relations between India and Pakistan.

Washington is now also faced with the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza strip. Though Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is doing her utmost to quell the violence, her influence is limited by circumstances. (This is not to say that experts in Washington expect much of the Czech and French efforts to deal with the violence in the Gaza strip. European efforts have always been hampered by the absence of real influence on Israel. Arab governments know this, and have not given much weight to the efforts of European Union countries). This Arab-Israel issue – always a hot button in American politics – will become Obama's in two weeks time.

The new administration will have to work out the way it manages foreign policy. Hilary Clinton brings a strong reputation to her upcoming job as Secretary of State. Her effectiveness internally will depend on whether she succeeds in being a good manager and a source of fresh ideas. Abroad, her standing will be determined by whether she is seen as representing the President's policies. If her relation with the White House is solid, and perceived as such, she will carry clout. It is in her interest to make this work. There is talk of appointing prominent figures as "czars" for particular issues: Dick Holbrooke for India/Pakistan and Afghanistan; Dennis Ross for the Middle East. If experience is any guide, such arrangements carry risks of internal bureaucratic infighting, and may not work. On the positive side, relations between State and Defense are likely to improve. How the experienced Jim Jones will handle his role at the NSC remains to be seen, as will his influence with President Obama.

The new Obama administration will be the target of many domestic and international demands from the day it takes office. There will be countless claimants for attention, hoping that the Obama administration will help realize their desires, achieve their objectives, and even meet their demands.

Inevitably, the disparity between expectations and reality will produce disappointments. In its pursuit of American interests the Obama administration will have requirements of its own. The list of contentious issues is long and growing. But the outlook at present is for a new team, and perhaps a new politics, that will open doors to new approaches – and even solutions – at home and abroad. So all Washington now needs is good weather on January 20.

Marten van Heuven is lid van de Internationale Adviesraad van Atlantisch Perspectief.